Water AlliesTier 1
at 貓腳印三民店 Store Champion
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
56.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1352–1352
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1096
Q1 1145
Q3 1318
1523
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exalted Alice | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
